Trump will fade away
There seems to be a lot of gnashing of teeth about Trump returning to politics, building his own party, or running again for office. But Brookings got it right when they identified nine possibilities for Trump’s future: fail in a leadership grab of the Republican Party, unite his MAGA supporters into a political operation (good luck with that), continue calls for insurrection, start his own communication company devoted to misinformation, become the next Sarah Palin, get convicted by the GOP, disappear in a swamp of criminal charges, go to jail, seek refuge someplace else.
I would not worry about Trump’s future influence. He is finished and will not be a significant player in the future. Granted, he did get 73 million votes and that sounds like an indicator of a popular person who could generate a following. But it won’t happen and here’s why:
Trump’s base is small and extreme. They do not represent anyone except for a collection skin heads, racists, and angry macho guys who are full of misinformation and confusion about what it means to live in an American democracy.
Donald Trump is actually quite disliked by most Americans and he leaves office with a 39% approval rating along with polls showing that the majority of Americans thought the Senate should convict him and disqualify him from holding future office. Even though he was not convicted the final vote count was the most bipartisan in history. Trump will be remembered as the instigator of a coup that came close to assassinating the country’s leaders and seriously disrupting the government. He has the lowest approval ratings of any president since 1945.
Most Americans now see Trump as a vulgar talk show host who was completely ineffectual and unprepared to be president. The stories coming out of the White House by former staff members are striking in their embarrassment of Trump. He never demonstrated respect for those around him by actually learning something. And it has always been clear from the beginning of Trump’s campaign that he had a distorted sense of reality and little experience in any sort of institution building. This included the debates in which he just tried to disrupt his opponent or use a tactic that substituted bluster and aggression for deliberation.
Talk of building another party, a Trump party, is a pipe dream. Constructing such political movements requires coordination, effort, and management skills that Trump certainly doesn’t have and is not interested in acquiring.
Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of electoral fraud have further detracted from his credibility. His inflammatory rhetoric has been cited as a contributory factor to the armed insurrection at the US Capitol. His childish hold on the claim that the election was stolen is additional evidence that Trump lives in an alternative reality. He believes he can construct the truth just because he says it.
Trump’s victory in 2016 was an aberration and he even made it to the primary ballot by a lucky confluence of circumstances which included an overcrowded primary that split votes and made it easier for him to stand out. He is a defeated one-term president who won in 2016 by a razor thin margin. In 2016 he had a very unpopular opponent and help from Russia and the FBI director. He lost the popular vote and won three key swing states by a hair. They were easy to turn in 2020.
Trump may parade around for a while as the charismatic deposed leader but soon no one will pay attention and he will fade away – as it should be.